Playing Poker With the Future of the World

The world has one year – or 374 days to be precise – to prepare for the most important political summit of all time: the UN climate conference in Copenhagen.

In reality "climate conference" is a wholly inadequate title for a summit of global leaders which, in fact, will need to establish a new world order. Starting from now, the world's pre-eminent experts and political leaders have just one year to reach an agreement. There are two likely outcomes for the conference:

• FAILURE. A watered-down agreement or a complete breakdown in negotiations in Copenhagen will indicate that the global leadership has lost control of the planet's future. All that will be left is to brace ourselves for even more severe climate catastrophes. The human cost is unthinkable. The economic cost has long ago been estimated: around 20% of the world's GNP. In reality, this will represent a complete meltdown of the world's economy – which in itself will exacerbate other crises. The consequences are difficult to describe for the simple reason that we have no experience with these kind of dire changes and have no methods to evaluate them. This outlook was recently described in the Climate Community's thought-provoking and detailed interview with one of the world's leading energy and climate specialists, Nobel Prize-winner Steve Chu.

• SUCCESS. An ambitious climate agreement will release extensive investment in new technologies and alternative energy solutions. Even though it is already too late to prevent considerable climate disasters, an annual investment of around 1% of the world's GNP could avoid a universal catastrophe. At the same time, an investment boom of the order needed for this will create new growth and new jobs – in this way a climate agreement would be an aggressive and effective response to the economic crisis. This could have a positive knock-on effect on many of the world's other problems, and send a signal of strong global leadership.

Naturally, there are also middle ground scenarios that could attempt to contain the worst consequences of climate change. One realistic possibility, for example, is that the summit is extended over more phases, so that, though the initial process may begin in December 2009, a raft of more complicated decisions will be postponed for some months.

There are several persuasive, strategic reasons to extend the conference over a longer period – for example, to prevent a public failure that would have considerable political and economic consequences. That doesn't change the fact that the summit will be a litmus test for the global leadership. History will be written in Copenhagen. The next 374 days will decide exactly how that history will unfold.

Global poker game

The summit is not just one of the most significant events of our time, but also one of the most difficult to prepare for. The poker game that is the planet's future is already under way. Everyone is waiting for everyone else, and everyone is watching each other.

If you ask those directly involved what the greatest barrier for a new agreement will be, they answer: political will. And, usually, it is others who are required to demonstrate it first.

In reality, good intentions alone will be nowhere near enough to solve this problem. That will become increasingly clear the closer we get to December 2009. Fundamentally, a climate agreement will come down to securing growth and development criteria for the whole world.

That will be no easy task bearing in mind countries with wildly differing backgrounds will be required to live up to exacting and ambitious CO₂ reduction goals. Even though the goals are necessary to ensure the planet's survival, they will inevitably challenge and expose global inequalities – economic, social, and technological.

Last week, the Copenhagen Climate Council attended a range of meetings with prominent Chinese business leaders and politicians in Beijing (read article; Climate Community, 11/12/08). The discussions strengthened China's interest and good will towards reaching an agreement in Copenhagen, but they also showed why the negotiations will be difficult.

One of the challenges will be to ensure access to new technologies. To what extent should the West share technology with developing countries – and on what terms? China is itself a major producer of advanced technologies. On its own, the theme of technology transfer opens up a can of worms with many controversial and fundamental questions that have wide ranging consequences.

Incompatible interests and no room for failure

It is extremely difficult – virtually impossible – to combine the U.S., Europe, and China's interests in one agreement, given their wildly different situations and major challenges. Nevertheless, that will be the Danish government's job in 2009 (see the Climate Community's interview with Denmark's chief climate negotiator, Thomas Becker).

The world can not tolerate the failure of this summit. That is why it is crucial to develop a new mindset in the approach to these negotiations. If they continue along the same old political lines – the great poker game – it will increase the risk of a weak result, or worse, an eventual collapse.

It will be vital for a new mindset to shift the focus from sharing the burden, to shared possibilities. We need a global masterplan for a new, sustainable social model. If we put together a model which demonstrates even greater weaknesses, produces even deeper inequalities, and makes the global community even more vulnerable, it will be a classic lose-lose situation.

The business world must take action

The way in which the new President-elect of America, Barack Obama, has created new hope for Americans and the rest of the world through his charismatic message of change is an inspiration. In a similar way there is a need for a new interpretation of, and new direction for, the climate fight to create new momentum in this last decisive year.

First and foremost, a new player must enter the field with new ideas on climate change: the international business community. Now is the moment for businesses to present their positive vision for a better and more sustainable society and tell "the inconvenient truth" about climate change. The climate debate needs an "Obama-lift" – and that could be a role for the business community.

Even if it becomes necessary to develop entirely new technologies, under the right conditions the existing scientific and technological knowledge and the business community's drive for innovation can prevent many of the worst climate catastrophes, at the same time as creating a new growth and new jobs.

Businesses have the potential to make the challenges of climate change pertinent to wider circles. "The right conditions" means, among other things, that businesses must be encouraged and motivated to make adjustments to the necessary targets. This is assuming that the economic crisis and the climate crisis are dealt with together.

Countdown has begun

The climate summit must conclude with an agreement that paves the way for an investment boom, and so curtail or end the recession before it develops into a full-blown depression.

This is the way to create a win-win situation: the climate crisis and the economic crisis are solved together. International business faces the world's largest and most important lobbying job: to convince the global community that it can deliver solutions if the global political leadership can ensure a stable and long-term framework for their implementation.

To document a realistic vision, and make it public worldwide, will apply maximum pressure on the politicians. If this is not sufficient, the responsibility for the world's meltdown will be easier to apportion.

The first decisive step is to participate in the partnership the Copenhagen Climate Council has established together with a list of international opinion-leading organizations. At the World Business Summit on Climate Change, held here in Copenhagen on May 24-26, 2009, they will deliver their collective message to the Danish hosts of the UN summit.

The coming year won't just be a test of the world's political leadership, it will also test the viability of creating a cross-partnership to solve society's greatest challenges. One thing is certain: 2009 will be an important one in the history of the world. The countdown has begun.

*Editor's Note: This commentary originally appeared, in somewhat different form, in Monday Morning weekly.