Copenhagen Countdown: "A Vision Without a Plan Is an Illusion"

The headline is a quote by Jim Rogers, member of Copenhagen Climate Council and CEO of Duke Energy, the third largest energy company in the United States. And it goes straight to the point: The lack of commitment by many governments, rich or poor, to deliver a short-term target for reducing emissions.

Political leaders are often inclined to design climate change strategies with ambitious targets to be met in 2050, but when it comes to targets to be met when they are still in office – or indeed alive – they hold back. But without a firm emissions target in 2020, a 2050 target is irrelevant. All experts will tell you that unless you start a pathway pointing in the right direction, apply the tools and the milestones, you will never get there.

So to be precise: In 2020, it is at least a 25% reduction for the developed countries – and probably 40% if we are to believe the latest science – that is required in 12 years time.

This is the real test of Barack Obama's new, green leadership that we are all very encouraged and excited by. Never mind his 2050 target (80% of 1990 levels). Will he deliver a short-term target that makes 2050 a vision and not an illusion? Hopefully. The promise so far – reductions to 1990 levels by 2020 – is not enough. It is well below IPCC recommendations for economies like the United States, and it implies that even if we sign a deal in Copenhagen in December, with the United States and China onboard, we will not have peace of mind.

But, to ask a fair question: Is it mission impossible? Are deep reductions like these the work of academic theoretics without any link to the real world? A fair answer: No.

We have some history to lean on. From 2007-2012, 15 rather wealthy European Union countries are expected to have lowered emissions 8% from 1990 levels. That is in five years and under a Kyoto regime everyone agrees is inadequate, badly implemented, and full of holes. Having been inside government when Kyoto plans were implemented, I can attest that it has been a struggle to keep on track – but existing plans will, if fully implemented, get the EU-15 there, according to European Environment Agency (EEA).

A big economy like the United Kingdom is likely to overshoot their 12.5% reduction target. They will probably reach 18% two years early, says the EEA. A small economy like Denmark took on – by mistake, but still – a commitment of 21%. According to current projections, this is going to be met.

And both the UK and Denmark have had more or less normal economic growth since 2007 – only jeopardized by an incoming missile in late 2008 in the shape of a financial crisis.

In other words: It is doable, and there is no excuse. The finish line of the first stage must be in sight, not decades away. And the direction has to be right.