Optimism, Realism or Wake-Up Calls? John Kerry to Attend UN COP14 Summit; EU Tensions Increases as Top-Level Summit Approaches

With Joseph Biden set to become America's next Vice President, Democrat and former presidential candidate John Kerry will replace him as chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In his new role, he will be leading the Senate's delegation to the UN climate conference in Poznan, Poland, which starts on Monday. This conference is expected to indicate the way forward for the pivotal climate negotiations at COP15 next year in Copenhagen.

For those keen on a greener U.S. approach to the global climate talks, there is cause for optimism. Kerry says "America is back," sending a clear signal that both Congress and the new president are serious about action on climate change.

This optimism is shared by Gristmill blogger Kate Sheppard, who underscores the momentum that Obama and Kerry are bringing to U.S. climate politics: "It's a moment we've been waiting for, many of us, for some period of time. For eight years, to be blunt," she quotes Kerry for saying, "and we intend to pick up the baton and really run with it here."

Striking a more sober tone, Kerry has also stressed that the U.S. has to focus on what is achievable, given the "economic realities." "The bottom line is," Kerry says, "we are not going to be in the same position we were two years ago." Read the Guardian article by reporter Suzanne Goldberg.

IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri places a wake-up call to the United States. "This is a moment when leadership is required," he said in an interview with the Climate Community published this week, pointing to Obama and the coming U.S. administration.

EU Tensions Increase as Top-Level Summit Approaches

In the European Union, realism and even pessimism is on the rise. Poland and Italy have aired their reluctance towards an ambitious new EU climate approach: "Compromise, or Lose Climate Deal, Warns Poland" and "Italy to Veto New EU Climate Targets if No Changes" are the headlines for two Reuters telegrams this week.

A EurActiv.com article adds to the pessimistic sentiment: "EU Heads Towards Scaled-Down Climate Ambitions." According to sources quoted in the article, Nicolas Sarkozy and the French EU Presidency is "putting everything on the table" to secure an EU climate agreement at the high-level ministerial meeting taking place December 11-12. This is likely to mean an agreement that is watered down as compared to the EU agreement from January 2008, which paved the way for a 20% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2020, and a 20 % increase in the use of renewable energy sources in that same period.

Sir Nicolas Stern, British economist and a leading expert on climate change used his voice this week to appeal to the European countries not to "go flaky." In an interview with New York Times' Green Inc. blogger, James Kanter, Stern said that "It's absolutely crucial that they hold together on this," meaning that the European Union should agree on an ambitious package of measures to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, even if that means making concessions to satisfy reluctant countries like Poland. "I do think Poland's needs need to be taken into account," Mr. Stern said.

Following Stern's wake up call, Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt this week gave a speech at the Nordic Climate Solutions conference about the need for the EU to show leadership. (Nordic Climate Solutions is Northern Europe's largest clean-tech conference). "We must act today, in order to save tomorrow," he said, adding that, "If Europe cannot [come together], how should we convince others?"

What will the coming weeks bring? No one knows. So for the optimists, realists, and pessimists still reading this article, there is, as always, only one answer: We will have to wait and see.

Lasse Skjoldan,

Journalist