COP15 Daily Brief: Day 9

World leaders, notably British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, began arriving in Copenhagen on Tuesday night to join the COP15 climate change talks. Their arrival has helped to tamp down a bit of the panic that has pervaded the Bella Center in this conference's second week. It probably was always going to be so.

The world knew before negotiators even decamped for Copenhagen that the prospects for concluding a legally-binding international treaty during COP15 were slim to non-existent. Now expectation has become reality as the 120 heads of state will be pressured to rescue these talks from failure.

G192

Brown acknowledged today that the world could still fail to reach agreement in Copenhagen, but, to prevent that fate, he and other leaders were engaging in direct bi- and multi-lateral talks.

"It is possible that we will not get an agreement, and it's also true that there are many issues to be sorted out," he said in an interview today with the BBC. But he was also hopeful that differences could be bridged, citing the conversations he'd had already today with President Barack Obama, Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Nicolas Sarkozy, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia (the leader of the African Group at these talks), and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh.

"I'm determined to do everything I can to bring the world together. We've had the G8 and the G20, this is effectively the G192, so we've got 192 countries that have got to come together for this agreement. I think it cannot be done in one day; it's got to be done in the days to Friday. I think we can play a very important part in bringing the world together to make sure that on this momentous week we get an ambitious climate change agreement," Brown added.

Kyoto Protocol in "intensive care"?

It's certainly true that the talks, beset by procedural hurdles, suspension of plenary hall sessions, and a one-day walk-out, could use some direct intervention by heads of state. In a news conference with the Indonesia president yesterday, Merkel said, "I can't conceal the fact that I've become a bit nervous about whether we'll be able to do it. We all know time is running out and we need to get serious."

Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said in a press briefing today that "the sense we get is that Kyoto is in intensive care if not dead."

Their pessimism is countered by signals from the White House. President Obama "believes that we can get an operational agreement that makes sense in Copenhagen," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said in Washington yesterday.

Obama, who is set to speak at COP15 early Friday morning, has been busy calling other world leaders to help move the talks forward. US lead negotiator Todd Stern said on Tuesday that Obama had (like Gordon Brown) called Prime Minister Meles and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in recent days.

Plodding ahead

As world leaders lay the groundwork for talks that they will continue here in Copenhagen, negotiators have plodded ahead working on the draft text from this conference's two tracks, Kyoto Protocol (KP) and Long term Co-operative Action (LCA).

Some of the negotiators plodded along, in fact, until 6:30am this morning. Much of that delay, the Guardian reported today, stemmed from maneuvering by US negotiators. According to an account by the Guardian's Allegra Stratton and John Vidal, the US inserted brackets into large blocks of the draft text of the LCA track (this would be in the mitigation section, the one whose deficiencies, as recounted by Todd Stern, I wrote about on Friday), effectively blocking discussions.

Citing unnamed sources, the authors went on: "Some observers believe the US wanted to counter moves by developing countries to add their concerns to the text, effectively ensuring that discussions would have to be continued next year. Another interpretation of the move was that it was a clever way to allow President Obama to come to the negotiations on Friday to 'save the talks' by putting back in much of what had been removed.

"'[Today's developments] shows that you cannot have a political statement coming out of the two draft texts that have been presented. Any new draft now will come from outside,' said one diplomat. 'All we can expect now is a bland political statement, and the possibility of the two draft texts going forward to be negotiated next year,' said another."

Building bridges

That "bland political statement" could emerge from a pending proposal from the Danish government. The proposal, to be announced today, would retain elements of the Kyoto Protocol structure.

This afternoon UNFCCC chief Yvo de Boer called the Danish proposal a "bridge-building exercise," and a "tool to aid consensus." De Boer further said that it would respect the existing draft texts from the KP and LCA tracks because parties have said they want elements from these documents to form the heart of a Copenhagen agreement.

Deforestation-financing breakthrough?

Another late announcement today could help advance the talks on two fronts: deforestation and financing. As part of an "ambitious and comprehensive outcome" here in Copenhagen, Australia, France, Japan, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States collectively agreed to dedicate $3.5 billion of public money towards "slowing, halting, and eventually reversing" deforestation in developing countries. Deforestation, which was left out of the Kyoto Protocol, accounts for approximately 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The money, the countries said in a statement, should be taken an "initial investment," quick-start financing to fund REDD+ (Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation "plus" Conservation) programs through 2012. The US' share would be $1 billion over the next three years.

Justin Gerdes, Journalistic Web Editor

Read the COP15 Daily Brief: Day 8, Day 7, Day 6 (Kronborg), Daily 5, Day 4, Day 3, Day 2, Day 1.

Follow me on Twitter.