COP15 Daily Brief: Day 10

There are now 193 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Any outcome that heads of state might agree to on Friday, this conference's final day – or, more likely, in the early hours of Saturday morning – requires consensus.

Consensus, yes, but though all countries have an equal voice under the Convention, some countries are, to borrow a phrase, more equal than others. Here in Copenhagen, the more equal parties, the United States and China, are, as I wrote in May: "the two indispensible nations in the global effort to slash carbon emissions."

The truth is that China and the US' combined wealth and carbon footprint (between them accounting for more than 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions) confer on each a dominating influence at these talks.

A $100-billion challenge

One small indication: the overflowing scrum of journalists and photographers that filled the Bella Center press conference room this morning to listen to a statement by US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. The feeling in the room – after nearly two weeks of fits and starts, accusations and rebuttals – was relief. Relief that the US and China were now fully engaged and would, through bilateral talks, help drive all 193 parties to a deal.

Clinton didn't disappoint. She arrived in Copenhagen with a US first: a dollar figure attached to a long-term financing target. Clinton said: "In the context of a strong accord in which all major economies stand behind meaningful mitigation actions and provide full transparency as to their implementation, the United States is prepared to work with other countries toward a goal of jointly mobilizing $100 billion a year by 2020 to address the climate change needs of developing countries.

"We expect this funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance. This will include a significant focus on forestry and adaptation, particularly, again I repeat, for the poorest and most vulnerable among us."

The figure floated by Clinton accords with a figure pushed by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, as well as one jointly announced by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, European Union president Fredrik Reinfeldt and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on Wednesday. Clearly, then, in these talks' closing days, countries seem to be converging on an adaptation funding target for 2020.

Trust, but verify

UNFCCC chief Yvo de Boer reacted to Clinton's statement in his typically measured way. "It's good there's now been a statement of support for a clear number on long-term finance." But, he added, "This discussion will have to take place with other parties, whether they feel that sum is adequate."

He also reiterated that he would like to see a specific dollar figure listed for the US share of the 2020 financing goal (as he has for two weeks regarding the US' portion of the proposed $10-billion per year, quick-start adaptation fund).

Clinton's olive branch to China and the rest of the developing world, however, came with explicit terms. For money to flow, she said, the way forward must include four core elements: decisive national actions, an operational accord that internationalizes those actions, assistance for nations that are the most vulnerable and least prepared to meet the effects of climate change, and standards of transparency that provide credibility to the entire process.

"In the absence of an operational agreement that meets these elements, she said "there will not be that kind of financial commitment, at least from the United States."

Critical to Clinton and the US negotiating team, as well as to lawmakers in Washington, is that mitigation actions taken by China and India and other emerging economies be fully transparent.

"We have presented and discussed numerous approaches to transparency with a number of countries, and there are many ways to achieve transparency that would be credible and acceptable. But there has to be a willingness to move toward transparency in whatever form we finally determine is appropriate. If there is not even a commitment to pursue transparency, that's kind of a deal-breaker for us."

With the long-term financing concession, the US clearly expects China to call its bluff – or be seen to have prevented the developing world from receiving funding to protect its most vulnerable populations.

"It would be hard to imagine, speaking for the United States, that there could be the level of financial commitment that I have just announced in the absence of transparency from the second biggest emitter," Clinton said.

Interlocking pieces

Late yesterday, the Danish government, after complaints about lack of transparency and "put[ting] forward text from the sky" decided not to submit draft texts for a proposed political agreement. COP15 President Lars Løkke Rasmussen reassured parties that the only draft texts that were to be considered on the conference's last two days were those submitted by the chairs of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) and Long Term Co-operative Action (LCA) tracks.

Yvo de Boer seconded this in comments today, saying that the only basis for the work of contact groups chaired by Rasmussen's Special Representative Connie Hedegaard this afternoon were the KP and LCA texts sent to plenary.

Where does this leave us? In her remarks this morning, Clinton seemed to ask parties to have the courage to give their assent – in one comprehensive outcome – to the key elements of a Copenhagen deal that countries had agreed to at forums throughout this year.

"We think this agreement has interlocking pieces, all of which must go together. There have been numerous instances in the past year where parties have agreed to the elements of the agreement that we are seeking – at L'Aquila, the G8, the Major Economies Forum, the bilateral meeting between President Obama and President Hu Jintao in their statement in Beijing. Time and time again leading up to these negotiations, all the parties have committed themselves to pursuing an agreement that met the various standards, including transparency."

Tonight, several reports from COPInsider had Clinton meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the hotel of the Chinese delegation. PointCarbon also reported that EU heads of state were to meet tonight in a makeshift "summit" to decide whether to raise their 2020 emissions reduction target from 20% to 30% – perhaps the "endgame" predicted by Swedish Environment Minister Andreas Calgren that I wrote about on the conference's opening day.

And despite rumors to the contrary, Clinton said that President Obama still intends to fly overnight to Copenhagen: "The President is planning to come tomorrow. Obviously we hope that there will be something to come for."

Justin Gerdes, Journalistic Web Editor

Read the COP15 Daily Brief:  Day 9, Day 8, Day 7, Day 6 (Kronborg), Daily 5, Day 4, Day 3, Day 2, Day 1.

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Photo credit: Flickr/Andy_Revkin