Global Warming and Agriculture

Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country is written by William R. Cline, and published December 2007. In this new book, William Cline, a joint senior fellow at CGD and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, provides the comprehensive estimates of the impact of cliamte change on agriculture - with detail by country and subregions within the largest countries. The estimates focus particularly on China, India, Brazil, and the poor countries of the tropical belt in Africa and Latin America.

Temperatures in developing countries, which are predominantly located in lower latitudes, are already close to or beyond the thresholds at which further warming will reduce rather than increase agriculture potential, and these countries tend to have less capacity to adapt. Moreover, agriculture constitutes a much larger fraction of GDP in developing countries than in industrial countries, so a decrease in productivity will impose larger income loss in developing countries.

Cline applies agricultural impact models of two types, "Ricardian" statistical economic models and process-based agronomic crop models, combined with leading climate model projections, to develop comprehensive estimates for agricultural impacts in more than 100 countries. He develops a consensus set of geographically detailed estimates for changes in temperature and precipitation by the 2080s and applies these climatic changes to the agricultural impact models.

 

Reviews:

"Bill Cline has been a pioneer in the study of the economic effects of global warming. His latest book on the effects on agriculture is of great importance and he has provided another important landmark in the study of this crucial issue."

Sir Nicholas Stern, I.G. Patel Chair, London School of Economics and Political Science, and author of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change for the UK Treasur

"For too long environmentalists and earth scientists in the rich world have had an unfortunate near-monopoly on serious concern about climate change and its mitigation. This book will help change that. Its careful country-based estimates of the impact of climate change on agriculture constitutes a serious wake-up call to development economists, finance ministers in emerging markets, and analysts everywhere who care about sustained poverty-reducing growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America."